Letter from the President Low for Long Before I say a word about money management I need to talk about the Fed. Remember, nothing matters to your liquid wealth more than what the Fed will do in the next two years. This is true even if your entire portfolio holds Mexican securities exclusively. Yesterday’s FOMC […]

Macro Views Next week: the highlights During the week of 4 August. Mexico: Congress works on energy reform legislation. Both chambers have moved fast and all bills could be sent to President Peña Nieto in one or two weeks. So far, politicians are on track to validate our assumption that investor-friendly laws will be signed […]

Nuestro Desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable mexicana (+10.3%), la de mercados emergentes (+10.2%) y la de mercados desarrollados del Pacífico (+8.1%). Las de peor desempeño fueron una gama amplia de materias primas (-3.7%), la […]

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were Mexico equity (+10.3%), emerging market equity (+10.2%), and Pacific developed market equity (+8.1%). Producing the lowest returns were broad commodities (–3.7%), German equity (–2.7%), and European developed market equity (+0.7%). So far this […]

Currencies In the four weeks to July 28, the USD/MXN moved inside $1.00=12.94–13.02. We forecast 13.00 for December 2014 but also, some time before then, a volatility episode. The peso in this scenario hits 13.30, then bounces. We think the EUR/USD has overreacted and will stabilize soon at around €1.00=1.35. But risks are tilted toward […]

Equity EUR/USD and French stock market losses are hurting euro stock valuations in dollar terms. By contrast—again, in USD terms—GBP/USD strength is boosting an otherwise weak UK stock market performance. EUR/USD and French stock market losses are hurting euro stock valuations in dollar terms. By contrast—again, in USD terms—GBP/USD strength is boosting an otherwise weak […]

Bienvenidos a La Carpeta Negra en su nuevo formato: un blog interactivo. En La Carpeta Negra, compartimos información, opiniones e ideas de estrategia para inversores globales. También informamos sobre el desempeño de nuestros portafolios modelo. La Carpeta Negra no es nueva: nació hace siete años como un producto interno de investigación que el staff entregaba semanalmente […]

Welcome to La Carpeta Negra in its new format: an interactive blog. In La Carpeta Negra, we share actionable information, opinion, and strategy ideas for global investors. We also report on the performance of our model portfolios. La Carpeta Negra (“The Black Binder” in Spanish) isn’t new: it was born seven years ago as an internal […]

Carta de la Presidente Hay un rumor inquietante de que los bonos basura corporativos de EE UU están enfrentando un creciente riesgo de liquidez: los inversores podrían intentar venderlos en masa y no encontrar compradores salvo a precios de liquidación. Nuestro portafolio modelo[1] de corto plazo, así como aquellos de nuestros clientes, tienen grandes asignaciones […]

Letter from the President We’re hearing a worrisome buzz, which is that U.S. corporate junk bonds are facing a growing liquidity risk: investors could suddenly start trying to unload them en masse and fail to find willing buyers except at fire-sale prices. Our client and model short-term portfolios[1] hold large (nearly 50%) allocations to U.S. […]