Revised forecast for yields on the 10y UST

Genevieve Signoret

13 September 2014

Fixed Income

Before moving on to our regular data compendium, we share our updated central-scenario forecast for yields on U.S. Treasury bonds.

In light of incoming data, we now expect the 10-year U.S. bond yield to end this quarter at around 2.5%. However, we continue to expect U.S. bond yields to soon start trending up across all credit grades, and for the path to be uneven and unpleasant. We continue to anticipate a period of severe volatility marked by positive correlations across all asset classes except for safe-haven cash. Whereas earlier, we visualized this episode hitting this quarter, we are now (rather arbitrarily) placing it in Q1 2015.

In fact, it can happen any time.

Revised forecast
Central scenario forecast for bond yields, Q32 2014 – Q2 2016