The next three weeks

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views

Because this blog is about to start its quarterly two-week pause, we leave you today with a calendar of not one but three weeks of potentially marketing-moving events.

Events in red are those most likely to shake markets.

Monday 22

• Euro Area: European Central Bank Speech (ECB): Mario Draghi, the ECB governor, attends a meeting of the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee to debate monetary policy settings, economy. Since his Jackson Hole’s speech, Mario Draghi has been clamoring for structural reforms in Europe. This week’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) was less successful than expected. We’d love to hear Mario Draghi comment on these topics.
• USA: Fed Speech: Kocherlacota (FOMC voter) speaks on “The Objectives of Monetary Policy” before the Economic Club of Marquette County.
• Mexico: Unemployment rate (Aug).

Tuesday 23

• USA: FHFA house prices (Jul).
• Mexico: Retail sales (Jul).

Wednesday 24

• Global: Markit manufacturing PMI (Sep, flash). We look to business sentiment for clues as to what September industrial production will look like.
• Euro Area: ECB President Mario Draghi will visit Lithuania to attend a high-level Euro Conference.
• USA:Fed speech: Mester (FOMC voter) speaks on speaks on the economic outlook, monetary policy and communications and Evans (FOMC 2015 voter) on the economy before the Conference on Labor Market Slack.
• Mexico: Consumer prices (H1 Sep), global economic activity indicator (Jul). GDP growth in Q2 was decent. We’d like to start assessing Q3. Consensus: 2.1% (from 2.7% in Jun)

Thursday 25

• Turkey: Monetary policy decision. Inflation reached 9.5% in Aug (up from 9.3% in Jul). GDP was down –1.8% q/q saar in Q2. But recently the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has been more concerned about growth than inflation. Consensus: -25pb to 8.00%.
• Euro Area: Money supply and commercial bank lending (Aug).
• USA: Unemployment claims (Sep 20), Fed speech: Powell (FOMC voter),Markit services PMI (Sep, flash), durable goods orders (Aug). Last month’s orders rocketed because of new airplane orders. We expect the rate to come back down to earth this month. Consensus: -17.5% month on month (from 22.6% in Jul).
• Brazil: Unemployment rate (Aug).

Friday 26

• Japan: Consumer prices (Aug). Inflation moved down in July. We’re watching to see whether the downtick will become a trend or was just a blip. Consensus: 3.3% (from 3.4% in Jul).
• UK: Bank of England (BoE) speech:Mark Carney, the BoE governor, will be the key speakerat theInstitute and Faculty of Actuaries 2014 GIRO conference. Mark Carney made headlines recently when he voiced his opinion on Scottish independence. Scots ended up voting to stay in the UK. With the referendum now past, we’re keen to hear an update of Carney’s views on the economy and BoE policy.
• USA: GDP (Q2, final), U. Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations (Sep, final), foreign trade (Aug).

Monday 29

• Germany: Consumer prices (Sep, flash).
• USA: Personal income, consumption and savings (Aug). PCE headline and core inflation. The Fed’s favorite inflation measure is the PCE core.
• Mexico: Capacity utilization (Jul).

Tuesday 30

• Japan: Unemployment rate (Aug), industrial production (Aug).
• Korea: Industrial production (Aug).
• India: Monetary policy decision.
• Turkey: Foreign trade (Aug).
• Euro Area: Unemployment rate (Aug), consumer prices (Sep, flash).
• Germany: Unemployment rate (Aug).
• UK: GDP (Q2, final).
• USA: S&P/Case-Shiller house prices (Jul), conference Board consumer confidence (Sep).
• Mexico: Money supply and commercial bank lending (Aug), federal government income and spending (Aug).

Wednesday 1 October

• Global: Markit manufacturing PMIs (Sep).
• China: NBS manufacturing PMI (Sep).
• Korea: Consumer prices (Sep), foreign trade (Sep).
• Euro Area: GDP (Q2, final).
• USA: Fiscal year begins, light vehicle sales (Sep), ISM manufacturing PMI (Sep).
• Brazil: Foreign trade (Sep).
• Mexico: Family remittances (Aug), IMEF manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMI (Sep).

Thursday 2

• Euro Area: Monetary policy decision.
• USA: Unemployment claims (Sep 27).
• Brazil: Industrial production (Aug).

Friday 3

• Global: Markit services PMIs (Sep).
• China: NBS nonmanufacturing PMI (Sep).
• Turkey: Consumer prices (Sep).
• USA: Commercial bank lending (Sep), ISM nonmanufacturing PMI (Sep), nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate (Sep), foreign trade (Aug).
• Mexico: Inegi manufacturing PMI (Sep), Banxico survey of professional forecasters (Sep), consumer confidence (Sep).

Sunday 5

• Brazil: Presidential election. The socialist candidate, Marina Silva, favors central bank independence. The election is expected to be close enough to trigger to a second round of voting.

During the week

• Mexico: Auto production and sales (Sep).

Tuesday 7

• Japan: Monetary policy decision.
• Germany: Industrial production (Aug).
• UK: Industrial production (Aug).
• USA: Job openings and labor turnover (Aug), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Oct), consumer credit (Aug).

Wednesday 8

• China: Foreign trade (Sep).
• Korea: Monetary policy decision.
• USA: Monetary policy meeting minutes (Sep 16-17).
• Brazil: Consumer prices (Sep).
• Mexico: Wage settlements (Sep), fixed investment (Jul).

Thursday 9

• India: Foreign trade (during the week) (Sep).
• Germany: Foreign trade (Aug).
• UK: Monetary policy decision.
• USA: Unemployment claims (Oct 4).
• Mexico: Consumer prices (Sep).

Friday 10

• Global: OPEC Monthly oil market report (Sep).
• Japan: Monetary policy meeting minutes (Sep 3-4).
• India: Industrial production (Aug).
• Turkey: Industrial production (Aug).
• UK: Foreign trade (Aug).
• USA: Federal government income and spending (Sep), world agricultural supply and demand estimates (Sep), annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.
• Mexico: Industrial production (Aug), fixed investment (Jun).