Macro Views Next week in detail Events in red are those most likely to shake markets. All week Mexico: Ayotzinapa crisis. We expect President Peña Nieto to make cabinet changes to cope with discontent and a crumbling international image and thus ensure that the crisis doesn’t block or slow down reform-motivated new investment. Monday 24 […]

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable de baja volatilidad (5.9%), la del sector financiero (3.7%) y la de capitalización grande de EE UU (3.6%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron una amplia gama […]

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were U.S. low volatility equity (5.9%), U.S. financial services equity (3.7%), and U.S. large cap equity (3.6%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were broad commodities (–13.6%), U.S. energy equity (–10.5%), and Mexico […]

Fixed Income The yield on TIPs maturing five years from now has finally turned positive—barely (0.23%). Bond investors are demanding a mere 141bp premium to buy non-inflation-protected bonds maturing five years from now. U.S. 30y mortgage lending rates are trending down in absolute terms, trending down in terms of their spread over yields on comparable […]

Carta de la Presidente La mayoría de gente que conozco no ahorra lo suficiente. ¿Lo hace usted? Para responder, pregúntese lo siguiente: Considere cada etapa de la vida: cuando sus hijos son dependientes y viven en casa, cuando todavía son dependientes pero estudian lejos del hogar, cuando son financieramente independientes pero usted aún trabaja, y […]

Letter from the President Most people I meet aren’t saving enough. Are you? To answer, ask yourself the following: Consider each life stage: while your children are dependent and live at home, while they’re still dependent but are away at school, after they’ve become financially independent but you’re still working, and after you retire. What […]

Macro Views Events in red are those most likely to shake markets. Monday 17 Japan: GDP (Q3, preliminary). Because of the April tax hike, Japan’s GDP contracted in Q2. We and the consensus think it rebounded in Q3. Consensus: +2.80% q/q saar (from –7.10% in Q2). Turkey: Unemployment rate (Aug). Euro Area: Foreign trade (Sep). USA: […]

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable de baja volatilidad (7.2%), la del sector financiero (6.3%) y la de capitalización grande de EE UU (4.8%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron una amplia gama […]

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were U.S. low volatility equity (7.2%), U.S. financial services equity (6.3%), and U.S. large cap equity (4.8%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were broad commodities (–13.8%), U.S. energy equity (–10.7%), and developed […]

Fixed Income At the close of yesterday, yield on a 10-year UST was 2.35%. For December 31, we revise down our forecast to 2.50% from a previous 2.60. Risk premia on long-term corporate bonds have moved closer to their long-term average. Although the correction has been painful, today’s wider spreads strike us as more stable […]