Yellen speech, China data, EZ GDP, Banxico minutes, IEA report

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views

Events in red are those most likely to shake markets.

During the week

• Mexico: Auto production and sales (Oct).

Monday 10

• China: Consumer prices (Oct). Consensus: 1.6% year on year (from 1.6% in Sep).
• Turkey: Industrial production (Sep).
• USA: World agricultural supply and demand estimates (Oct).
• Mexico: SHF house prices (Q3), fixed investment (Aug).

Tuesday 11

• Mexico: Industrial production (Sep). Mexican industrial production slowed down in Aug. Last week, August’s IGAE—a GDP proxy—was also disappointing. We expect a rebound in September. Consensus: 3.5% year on year (from 1.4% in Aug).

Wednesday 12

• Global: OPEC Monthly oil market report (Oct).
• Korea: Unemployment rate (Oct).
• India: Industrial production (Sep).
• Euro Area: Industrial production (Sep).
• UK: Unemployment rate (Sep), Quarterly Inflation Report. Consensus: 5.9% (from 6.0% in Aug). We expect the Bank of England to be the first of the Big 4 to start increasing rates. We look forward to learning how much slack it thinks remains in the British economy.
• USA: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Nov), federal government income and spending (Oct).
• Mexico: Wage settlements (Oct), employment (Q3).

Thursday 13

• China: Retail sales (Oct), industrial production (Oct), fixed investment (Oct). Consensus: retail sales, no change at 11.6% year on year; industrial production, no change at 8.0%; fixed investment, 16.0% (from 16.1% in Sep).
• Korea: Monetary policy meeting.
• USA: Job openings and labor turnover (Sep), unemployment claims (Nov 8). Fed speech: Yellen. Chair Yellen will speak at the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Board, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Conference: Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance, Washington, D.C.

Friday 14

• Global: IEA monthly oil market report (Oct). Oil prices are at 5-year lows. Any help in understanding this phenomenon is kindly welcome.
• Euro Area: Consumer prices (Oct, final), GDP (Q3, flash). The euro area didn’t grow last quarter. This one seems a bit better for growth. Consensus: consumer prices, no change at 0.4% year on year; GDP, 0.1% q/q (from 0.0% in Q2).
• USA: Retail sales (Oct), business inventories (Sep), U. Michigan consumer sentiment survey (Nov, preliminary). Consensus: retail sales, 0.2% month on month (from -0.3% in Sep); consumer sentiment, 87.5 (from 86.9 in Oct).
• Mexico: Monetary policy meeting minutes (Oct 31).

Saturday 15

• Mexico: Business financing (Q3).