Watch for FOMC minutes, and GDP in Mexico and Japan

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views

Events in red are those most likely to shake markets.

Monday 17

• Japan: GDP (Q3, preliminary). Because of the April tax hike, Japan’s GDP contracted in Q2. We and the consensus think it rebounded in Q3. Consensus: +2.80% q/q saar (from –7.10% in Q2).
• Turkey: Unemployment rate (Aug).
• Euro Area: Foreign trade (Sep).
• USA: Industrial production (Oct), capacity utilization (Oct).  Consensus: industrial production: +0.2% m/m (from +1.0% in Sep); capacity utilization, no change at 79.3%.

Tuesday 18

• UK: Consumer prices (Oct). Consensus: no change at 1.2% y/y.

Wednesday 19

• Global: Commodities prices (Oct).
• Japan: Monetary policy meeting. Consensus: rate, no change at 0.0–0.1%; asset purchase program: unchanged also.
• UK: Monetary policy meeting minutes (Nov 6).
• USA: Monetary policy meeting minutes (Oct 28-29). From the communiqué we know that the FOMC voted to end its asset purchase program at the end of the month. It probably also kept on discussing how exactly the Fed should bring about and sequence the removal of stimulus.
• Brazil: Unemployment rate (Oct).
• Mexico: Banxico’s Quarterly Inflation Report. Lately, inflation in Mexico has been overshooting analyst outlooks, while activity indicators have been undershooting.

Thursday 20

• Global: Markit manufacturing PMI (Nov, flash).
• Japan: Foreign trade (Oct).
• Turkey: Monetary policy meeting. The CRBT continues to find itself between a rock and a hard place. Growth has been disappointing, unemployment is at 9.8% and inflation remains at 9.0%. Consensus: rate unchanged at 8.25%.
• USA: Unemployment claims (Nov 15), consumer prices (Oct). Falling commodity prices have been exerting downward pressure on the CPI. Consensus: 1.6% y/y (from 1.7% in Sep).
• Mexico: Retail sales (Sep).

Friday 21

• Mexico: GDP (Q3), global economic activity indicator (Sep), Banamex survey (H1 Nov).  Lately, several indicators have pointed to a slower-than-expected Mexico recovery. Consensus: 2.90% y/y. TransEconomics: 2.70% y/y.