Peña Nieto cabinet, Iran–P5+1 talks, US GDP revision, OPEC summit, BoJ minutes, EZ CPI

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views

Next week in detail

Events in red are those most likely to shake markets.

All week

• Mexico: Ayotzinapa crisis. We expect President Peña Nieto to make cabinet changes to cope with discontent and a crumbling international image and thus ensure that the crisis doesn’t block or slow down reform-motivated new investment.

Monday 24

• Global: Deadline for Iran and P5+1 to reach long-term deal on Iran’s nuclear program. We do not expect the P5+1 to reach an agreement on a long term deal, rather we think negotiations will continue after the current provisional deal is extended with a few small additions.
• USA: Markit services PMI (Nov, flash).
• Mexico: Unemployment rate (Oct), consumer prices (H1 Nov).

Tuesday 25

• Japan: Monetary policy meeting minutes (Oct 31). At this meeting the Bank of Japan decided to accelerate the pace of increase in the monetary base from ¥60–70 Bn to ¥80 Bn and to triple its asset purchase program. Unlike the April 2013 vote to implement the qualitative and quantitative easing program, which was unanimous, this vote was tight (5-4).
• USA: S&P/Case-Shiller house prices (Sep), FHFA house prices (Sep), GDP (Q3, second estimate), corporate profits (Q3), Conference Board consumer confidence (Nov). Consensus: 3.2%. q/q saar (from 3.5% in the first estimate).
• Mexico: Balance of payments (Q3).

Wednesday 26

• UK: GDP (Q3, second estimate).
• USA: Durable goods orders (Oct), personal income, consumption and saving (Oct), PCE inflation (Oct). This week’s Core CPI was above consensus. Watch how core PCE inflation—the Fed’s favorite—behaves. 
• Mexico: Foreign trade (Oct).

Thursday 27

• Global: OPEC ordinary meeting in Vienna, Austria. The OPEC will decide whether to cut oil prices to bring prices back up or keep oil production.
• Euro Area: Money supply and commercial bank lending (Oct).  Although the M3 money supply has been accelerating in the last few months, commercial bank lending has been contracting since 2012. Consensus: M3 money supply, 2.6% y/y (from 2.5% in Sep).
• Germany: Unemployment rate (Oct), consumer prices (Nov, flash). Germany’s inflation serve as a preview for the Euro Area number due out later in the week. Consensus 0.6% y/y (from 0.8% in Sep).
• USA: Unemployment claims (Nov 22).
• Mexico: Capacity utilization (Sep).

Friday 28

• Japan: Unemployment rate (Oct), consumer prices (Oct). Consensus: 3.0% y/y (from 3.2% in Sep).
• Korea: Industrial production (Oct).
• Turkey: Foreign trade (Oct).
• Euro Area: Unemployment rate (Oct), consumer prices (Nov, flash). Inflation has been dangerously low in the Euro Area. In October, it went up to 0.4% from 0.3%. Consensus: 0.3% (from 0.4% in Oct).
• USA: U. of  Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations (Nov, final).
• Brazil: GDP (Q3). Last quarter in Brazil, GDP contracted, while inflation hovered above the upper limit of the central bank’s target band. Consensus: 0.1% q/q (from –0.6% in Q2).
• Mexico: Federal government income and spending (Oct).

Update History:

• 23 November 2014: “rather we expect negotiations to but rather we think negotiations will continue after the current provisional deal is extended with a few possible small additions.”;  “Unlike the unanimous April 2013 vote to implement the qualitative and quantitative easing program, which was unanimous, this vote was tight (5-4).”; “Germany’s inflation will be a preview for the Euro Area’s inflation serve as a preview for the Euro Area number due out later next week.“