Carta de la Presidente En la minuta de la reunión del FOMC realizada el 27 y 28 de enero, vemos evidencia de que las discusiones del Comité van en la dirección de posponer el inicio de la normalización de las tasas de interés para después de junio de 2015. En minutas anteriores, los miembros parecían […]

Letter from the President In the minutes for the FOMC meeting of January 27-28, we read evidence that FOMC discussions are moving in the direction of postponing the start of interest rates normalization to beyond June 2015. In previous minutes, members had seemed to discount the importance of the recent sharp drop in inflation compensation […]

Macro Views Next week in brief Janet Yellen’s starts her testimony before Congress on Tuesday 24 and finishes Wednesday 25. Her words have huge potential to move markets. Our reading of minutes of the January 27–28 FOMC meeting released last week is that the FOMC’s faith in its own previous forecast that it will hike […]

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron los bienes raíces (7.9%), la renta variable alemana (5.9%) y la de capitalización mediana de EE UU (4.7%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron la renta variable de México (-10.6%), […]

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were U.S. real estate (7.9%), Germany equity (5.9%), and U.S. mid cap equity (4.7%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were Mexico equity (–10.6%), U.S. mortgages (–1.3%), and emerging market sovereign USD bonds […]

Macro Views Coming up Market uncertainty is being fueled by Greek debt negotiations, the upcoming March FOMC meeting and congressional testimony and a press conference by Janet Yellen, the strange flatness of the U.S. yield curve in the face of Fed and professional forecaster projections for a June rate hike in June, and the direction […]

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron los bienes raíces (9.0%), la renta variable alemana (6.0%) y la de capitalización mediana de EE UU (3.8%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron la renta variable de México (-13.4%), […]

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were U.S. real estate (9.0%), Germany equity (6.0%), and U.S. mid cap equity (3.8%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were Mexico equity (–13.4%), U.S. energy equity (–8.3%), and MLPs (–7.2%). Over the […]

Alternative Assets To reflect incoming data, we revise up our oil prices outlook for 2015, as follows: Quarterly forecast Annual forecast

Fixed Income We’re puzzled as to what is driving such high demand (high prices, low yield) for long-term U.S. Treasuries. While for maturities shorter than 5 years, UST valuations have slipped in anticipation of a near-term Fed rate hike, for long-term bonds, valuations have sky-rocketed (the yield curve has become extremely flat). One possibility is […]