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Watch PMIs this week

Genevieve Signoret

21 April 2015

Macro Views

Events in red are those most likely to shake markets.

During the week

  • Russia: Markit manufacturing and service PMIs (Apr). Russia’s in a recession. So far this year no PMI has crossed into expansion territory (exceeded 50).

Monday 20

  • Japan: Reuters Tankan survey (Apr). Compared with the 3-16 March survey period, the headline index for this survey period (1-15 April) fell by four points for manufacturing and rose by four points for non-manufacturing.

Tuesday 21

  • Mexico: Banxico international reserves. Gross reserves for April 10 were $194.8 Bn. Reserve accumulation has slowed down since 11 March 2015 when, to attenuate exchange rate volatility, the central bank began auctioning at no minimum exchange rate US$52 Mn daily. Monthly Index of Economic Activity, or IGAE (Feb). Analysts expect acceleration compared with January but slow growth nonetheless.

Wednesday 22

  • Japan: Real and nominal international trade. Exports will likely show abnormally great improvement from February levels depressed by the Lunar Year vacation period in China. Japanese exports to China plunged in February by more than 17%.
  • Turkey: Monetary policy decision. Despite depreciation in the Turkish lira, we see the central bank staying on hold at 7.50% for the 1-week repo rate, 7.25% for the overnight borrowing rate, and 10.75% for the overnight lending rate. Demand is weak and forex volatility is being correctly attributed to the global environment, not the local one.
  • UK: Bank of England (BoE) Minutes for the 15 April 2015 meeting at which the Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain the bank rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Program at £357 bn. We think the vote was anonymous.
  • USA: FHFA house price index (Feb). Home prices in the USA continue to trend up. This index rose by 5.1–5.4% year on year between November 2014 and January 2015. Existing home sales (Mar). We expect existing home sales to have continued to trend up in March.

Thursday 23

  • Euro area: Markit manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs, flash (Apr). All three should show improvement.
  • Germany: Markit manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs, flash (Apr).
  • Japan: Markit manufacturing PMIs, flash (Apr). This index has been hovering barely above 50, at which point output is flat. We expect no or only slight improvement.
  • Mexico: Consumer price index (Mar 2H). Headline for the first half of March reached 3.30%; core inflation came in at 2.57%.
  • USA: Jobless claims (week ending April 18). Markit manufacturing PMI, flash (Apr). Index levels exceeded 55 in February and March. It’s likely to have declined a bit this month. New home sales (Mar). We expect new home sales to have continued to trend up in March.

Friday 24

  • Global: Eurogroup meeting in Riga, Latvia (to 25 April).
  • USA: Durable new goods orders (Mar).
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