Currencies We forecast USD/EUR at 1.10 by Dec 2015 and 1.00 by Dec 2016. King Dollar Euro briefly fell below $1.10 for first time since August Peso is trending flat around 16.55 +/– 20 centavos

Carta de la Presidente En los portafolios modelo[1] y en los de nuestros clientes, estamos vendiendo bonos corporativos de grado de inversión (duración media: 5-10 años) para comprar bonos del Tesoro (duración media: 7-10 años). En los portafolios de mediano y largo plazo, esta transacción duplica nuestra posición en bonos del Tesoro y elimina toda […]

Letter from the President In client and model portfolios[1], we are selling U.S. investment grade corporate bonds (average duration: 5–10 years) and using the proceeds to buy U.S. Treasury bonds (average duration: 7–10 years). We explain why we’re making this move in this week’s edition of La Carpeta Negra Fixed Income: “What are we doing […]

Alternatives A week ago, we revised down our oil price forecast, as follows:   A Murphy’s Law you may not have heard of Of course, as soon as we did review down Brent, it rebounded—thus works Murphy’s Law of Forecasting. We’re staying cool We’ll watch Brent oil for a while before lurching to another revision. […]

Fixed Income Experts see bond market risk In its October 2015 edition of Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), the IMF reports financial conditions in emerging economies to have worsened since April. Their concern is largest for emerging markets, where private sector bank borrowing, foreign-currency exposure, and corporate bond issuance are on the rise. Risks loom […]

Equity For a discussion of how and why, despite our negative view on commodity prices, we still have a wee bit of exposure to commodities through commodity-linked equity, please see this week’s edition of La Carpeta Negra Alternative Assets: We revise Brent down. The equity correction continues

Carta de la Presidente Estoy en Nueva York y Princeton esta semana así que seré breve. El reporte laboral de EE UU de hoy no cambia mi juicio de que ni la economía mundial ni la de EE UU está entrando en recesión mas sí cambió mi perspectiva de la Fed: ahora espero que el […]

Letter from the President I’m in New York and Princeton this week so will be brief. Today’s U.S. jobs report does not change my judgement that the world and U.S. economies are not entering a recession but do shift my central-scenario outlook for the Fed: I now expect the first rate hike to take place […]

Alternative Assets   We now project Brent at around $45/barrel for the next five quarters Not all commodity prices are sinking. Industrials are down, but look at ag prices. Corn, for example, is up 20% from last year.

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron los bonos del Tesoro EE UU 7-10 años (+3.7%), deuda de mediano plazo con grado de inversión EE UU (+2.1%) y deuda corporativa con grado de inversión fuera de EE UU […]