Divisas El peso mexicano nuevamente supera su promedio móvil de 20 días. En nuestra opinión, no ha terminado esta racha de debilitamiento. Se trata de pesimismo a nivel global, lo cual sabemos porque todas las divisas de mercados emergentes están sufriendo lo mismo. No esperamos que la decisión de política monetaria de Banxico hoy ayude […]

Currencies We provide updated forecast tables for forex. Note that we see dollar strengthening against the peso by year end to $1.00=MXN16.80. We’re advising clients with large peso holdings held at Mexican brokerage houses to hold them for now in mutual funds that hedge the dollar-peso in the short term. Note further that we see […]

Currencies We forecast USD/EUR at 1.10 by Dec 2015 and 1.00 by Dec 2016. King Dollar Euro briefly fell below $1.10 for first time since August Peso is trending flat around 16.55 +/– 20 centavos

Currencies Based on incoming data, we revise two exchange rate forecasts: We revise up our September 30 EUR/USD forecast to $1.08. Note that we anticipate further policy loosening by the ECB and a Fed rate hike both this year still. We revise down our outlook for the peso to 17.0 by end September 2015 and […]

Currencies We now see a high likelihood that the risk asset (and emerging market currency) correction will last all of this third quarter. We continue to see strong upward momentum for the dollar against the peso for the next three weeks. We do, however, expect the exchange rate to settle at around $1.00=MXN16.00 by the […]

Currencies Scroll down to look at the third and last graph underneath our text. We’re surprised at how stable the USD/YEN rate held during last week’s volatility. Some analysts view the yen to be losing its safe-haven status. We think it’s temporary and that its responds to the market expectation—one we share—that, in the next […]

Currencies Merely to reflect emerging data trends, we revise down our outlook for the USD/YEN to $1.00=¥126 for Q2. Note that our Mexico peso forecast of US$1.00=MXN16.00 for quarter 3 is our way to signal that we expect the peso to dip sharply some time in quarter 3. It may actually already start to recover […]

Currencies Under central-scenario assumptions, of which a key one is that Greece and its creditors reach an accord this summer, we expect emerging market currencies to fall against the U.S. dollar on trend now through the start of normalization (probably in September), then recover by year end and beyond. We summarize this expected path for […]

Currencies In light of emerging foreign exchange trends, we have revised our outlook as follows: Yen has been oddly stable against the dollar, perhaps owing to generalized market caution (risk aversion generally favors the yen). We expect the yen to weaken to US$1.00=¥130 this quarter. The Swiss franc is up 3.86% against the dollar since […]

Currencies To incorporate incoming foreign exchange data, we have revised our outlook for the USD/MXN in quarters 1 and 2 of this year as follows: Data compendium