En esta carta les explico las actualizaciones que hemos hecho a las estrategias para nuestros portafolios bursátiles. Nuestro panorama esperanzador pierde algo de su lustre El pasado miércoles 27 de marzo compartimos a través de nuestro blog hermano, Timón Económico, nuestros escenarios actualizados para la economía y los mercados globales en el periodo 2018-19. Nuestro […]

Letter from Queretaro Yesterday I wrote, “In this blog entry, I update you on our current (liquid) portfolio strategies.” A few paragraphs below that I mentioned as an example of risk assets something called “alternative assets”. In this blog entry, I want to spell out what I mean by liquid assets, illiquid assets, and alternative […]

In this blog entry, I update you on our current (liquid) portfolio strategies. Our rosy outlook has lost some shine Last Wednesday 27 March, on our sister blog, Timón Económico we shared updated scenarios for the world economy and global markets in 2018–19. While our outlook is still rosy, compared with a few months back, […]

Letter from Queretaro Feeling sober We believe that the world has changed. We are watchful and studious, bent on figuring out what exactly is emerging, in particular in Washington DC. We’re encouraging clients to think and act slowly, execute risk management plans methodically, bear in mind their investment horizons (ward off wasteful anxiety over short-term […]

Letter from Denver In “Colorado and the West are winning the post-recession marathon of job gains“, the Denver Post illustrates an important principle of commercial real estate investment, which is that the best way to make a successful property acquisition is to use a “top-down” approach—start with confidence in a geographic market on a macroeconomic […]

Carta desde Querétaro Según las encuestas, el riesgo de que los votantes del Reino Unido decidan abandonar la Unión Europea es de aproximadamente el 50%. Si optan por ello, el resultado probable a nuestro entender será que todos los activos de riesgo se liquidarán durante uno a tres meses y que, durante este período, repuntarán […]

Letter from Queretaro According to polls, the risk that United Kingdom voters will choose to leave the European Union is about 50%. If voters choose to leave the EU, the likely outcome in our view is that all risk assets will sell off for 1–3 months and that, during this time, safe-haven asset classes will […]

Letter from Denver I recently was in Phoenix to research the current state of that city’s office market and came across what seemed to be a puzzling statistic: the current Phoenix office vacancy rate is reported at 19%, much higher than in most office markets around the U.S. (by comparison, Denver’s office vacancy is currently […]

Letter from the President (Leer la versión en español.) Summary I don’t know whether we’re experiencing a mere market correction or have entered a bear market. I do not think the U.S. economy is entering a recession. For clients whose investment horizons are 2-5 years, we’re working to stabilize portfolios by temporarily reducing exposure to […]

Carta de la Presidente En los portafolios modelo[1] y en los de nuestros clientes, estamos vendiendo bonos corporativos de grado de inversión (duración media: 5-10 años) para comprar bonos del Tesoro (duración media: 7-10 años). En los portafolios de mediano y largo plazo, esta transacción duplica nuestra posición en bonos del Tesoro y elimina toda […]