Macro Views Events in red are those most likely to shake markets. During the week Russia: Markit manufacturing and service PMIs (Apr). Russia’s in a recession. So far this year no PMI has crossed into expansion territory (exceeded 50). Monday 20 Japan: Reuters Tankan survey (Apr). Compared with the 3-16 March survey period, the headline […]

Macro Views A slew of March China numbers will be the data highlight for markets this week. Politics Greece managed to make a €450 million payment to the IMF last week. But it’s almost out of money and has obligations to meet in coming seeks. The Eurogroup, which is composed of the finance ministers in […]

Macro Views Policy For the Fed to start raising rates, core inflation need not and wage growth need not accelerate. But they cannot weaken, market-implied inflation expectations cannot drop further, and employment data has to keep improving. That’s our take from last Friday’s Yellen’s speech. We hold to our view: we expect the FOMC to […]

Macro Views This week We expect the FOMC to drop the “patient” phrase in the communiqué. However, we don’t think this necessarily implies a rate hike in June. We think the Fed will probably start normalizing in the second half of the year but see a large risk that it will do so in June. […]

Macro Views Last week Politics Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, visited the U.S. congress to warn Americans on the dangers of reaching a deal with Iran over their nuclear program. Iran is competing with ISIS “for the crown of militant Islam”, he denounced. Mr. Netanyahu visited by invitation of Republicans; the visit was seen as […]

Macro Views This week Markets this week will be fixated on Friday’s U.S. jobs report and its meaning for the March 17–18 FOMC decision. We expect neither the Bank of England nor the European Central Bank to revise its monetary policy stance on Thursday. For details on these and other market movers, please scroll down […]

Macro Views Coming up Market uncertainty is being fueled by Greek debt negotiations, the upcoming March FOMC meeting and congressional testimony and a press conference by Janet Yellen, the strange flatness of the U.S. yield curve in the face of Fed and professional forecaster projections for a June rate hike in June, and the direction […]

Macro Views This week’s main macro market risks China’s CPI inflation rate has fallen short of 2.0% since September 2014 and is expected to slowed down again in January. Analysts will be looking for signs that China faces the risk of falling into deflation. China’s central bank has been applying targeted stimulus to try to […]

Macro Views Next week Next week’s marketing moving highlights will be Greek debt talks and the U.S. jobs reports. For our full annotated events calendar, please scroll down. Activity USA GDP growth in Q4 was mainly driven by accelerating private consumption. USA GDP grew 2.6% q/q saar from 5.0% in Q3, slightly above our forecast […]

Macro Views Next week Next week’s main market-moving events are the Greek elections on Sunday and the U.S. FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Markets will be hypersensitive to even the slightest change in the Federal Open Market Committee’s tone or hint that the FOMC has begun to doubt that it will raise rates as early as […]