Updated forex forecasts
Genevieve Signoret
Currencies We forecast USD/EUR at 1.10 by Dec 2015 and 1.00 by Dec 2016. King Dollar Euro briefly fell below $1.10 for first time since August Peso is trending flat around 16.55 +/– 20 centavos
Abandonando bonos corporativos grado de inversión EE UU a favor de bonos del Tesoro
Genevieve Signoret
Carta de la Presidente En los portafolios modelo[1] y en los de nuestros clientes, estamos vendiendo bonos corporativos de grado de inversión (duración media: 5-10 años) para comprar bonos del Tesoro (duración media: 7-10 años). En los portafolios de mediano y largo plazo, esta transacción duplica nuestra posición en bonos del Tesoro y elimina toda […]
Ditching US investment grade corporate bonds in favor of USTs
Genevieve Signoret
Letter from the President In client and model portfolios[1], we are selling U.S. investment grade corporate bonds (average duration: 5–10 years) and using the proceeds to buy U.S. Treasury bonds (average duration: 7–10 years). We explain why we’re making this move in this week’s edition of La Carpeta Negra Fixed Income: “What are we doing […]
We revise Brent down
Genevieve Signoret
Alternatives A week ago, we revised down our oil price forecast, as follows: A Murphy’s Law you may not have heard of Of course, as soon as we did review down Brent, it rebounded—thus works Murphy’s Law of Forecasting. We’re staying cool We’ll watch Brent oil for a while before lurching to another revision. […]
What are we doing about bond market risk?
Genevieve Signoret
Fixed Income Experts see bond market risk In its October 2015 edition of Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), the IMF reports financial conditions in emerging economies to have worsened since April. Their concern is largest for emerging markets, where private sector bank borrowing, foreign-currency exposure, and corporate bond issuance are on the rise. Risks loom […]
Why do we hold any commodity-linked equity at all?
Genevieve Signoret
Equity For a discussion of how and why, despite our negative view on commodity prices, we still have a wee bit of exposure to commodities through commodity-linked equity, please see this week’s edition of La Carpeta Negra Alternative Assets: We revise Brent down. The equity correction continues
Fed subirá tasa en marzo
Genevieve Signoret
Carta de la Presidente Estoy en Nueva York y Princeton esta semana así que seré breve. El reporte laboral de EE UU de hoy no cambia mi juicio de que ni la economía mundial ni la de EE UU está entrando en recesión mas sí cambió mi perspectiva de la Fed: ahora espero que el […]
Fed hike in March
Genevieve Signoret
Letter from the President I’m in New York and Princeton this week so will be brief. Today’s U.S. jobs report does not change my judgement that the world and U.S. economies are not entering a recession but do shift my central-scenario outlook for the Fed: I now expect the first rate hike to take place […]
We now see Brent crude at around $45 for the next 5 quarters
Genevieve Signoret
Alternative Assets We now project Brent at around $45/barrel for the next five quarters Not all commodity prices are sinking. Industrials are down, but look at ag prices. Corn, for example, is up 20% from last year.
Renta fija mercados desarrollados con grado de inversión es categoría líder
Genevieve Signoret
Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron los bonos del Tesoro EE UU 7-10 años (+3.7%), deuda de mediano plazo con grado de inversión EE UU (+2.1%) y deuda corporativa con grado de inversión fuera de EE UU […]