Pictures of a correction

Genevieve Signoret

Equity Summary A (downward) market correction is drop in an index that temporarily interrupts but does not reverse a trend. This is what we think is going on: a temporary drop but not a reversal in a bull market with at least another 18 months to run.  

We revise EUR/USD and USD/MXN projections

Genevieve Signoret

Currencies Based on incoming data, we revise two exchange rate forecasts: We revise up our September 30 EUR/USD forecast to $1.08. Note that we anticipate further policy loosening by the ECB and a Fed rate hike both this year still. We revise down our outlook for the peso to 17.0 by end September 2015 and […]

Invertir cantidades pequeñas para el mediano plazo (parte 3 de 3)

Genevieve Signoret

Carta de la Presidente Ésta es la tercera de tres entradas de blog sobre cómo abordamos los costos de transacción en operaciones pequeñas. Ejemplificaremos nuestro enfoque con una situación que solemos enfrentar: un cliente tiene una cuenta grande, dentro de la cual posee una “cubeta” (portafolio) pequeña. Consideraremos el caso en el cual el horizonte […]

Investing small amounts for the medium term (Part 3 of 3)

Genevieve Signoret

Letter from the President This is part three of a three-part series on how we’re coping with transaction costs on small transactions. We illustrate our approach by focusing on a situation we often face: a client has a large account but, within it, one small “bucket” (portfolio). We consider the case in which the client’s […]

RV de servicios financieros en EE UU resulta resistente

Genevieve Signoret

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable del sector financiero de EE UU (4.0%), la deuda municipal de corto plazo con grado de inversión de EE UU (0.5%) y los bonos del Tesoro EE UU […]

US financial services equity proves resilient

Genevieve Signoret

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest US financial services equity (4.0%), US short-term and US treasuries, 1-12 months (0.0%) Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were emerging market equity   (‒11.6%), US equity, materials (‒7.8%), and US real estate (mortgages) (‒6.9%). Over the […]

No change in our oil price forecast

Genevieve Signoret

Alternative Assets Data compendium  

Will drop in market-implied inflation expectations delay FOMC?

Genevieve Signoret

Fixed Income U.S. 5-year Treasury bonds are now paying just a 152bp premium over TIPS. In our view, a sustained trend drop underneath 150bp will delay the first FOMC rate cut to beyond September if core PCE inflation and real wage trends start deteriorating too. U.S. corporate junk bond spreads over investment grade corporate bonds […]

We still see stocks recovering in Q4 (but do diversify)

Genevieve Signoret

Equity Summary Most global stock markets continued their decline this week, with the S&P 500 index closing down 2.2% today Friday from a week ago. Nonetheless, our stock market outlook for October and beyond remains sunny. We expect the ongoing risk asset correction to end sometime after the Fed has announced its first rate hike […]

See further peso weakening, revise up the yen

Genevieve Signoret

Currencies We now see a high likelihood that the risk asset (and emerging market currency) correction will last all of this third quarter. We continue to see strong upward momentum for the dollar against the peso for the next three weeks. We do, however, expect the exchange rate to settle at around $1.00=MXN16.00 by the […]