We hold to our outlook for USTs
Genevieve Signoret
Fixed Income Given uncertainty around Greece and the referendum it has scheduled for Sunday 5 July, we expect safe havens such as U.S. Treasury securities to move up in price a bit next week. Today the yield on the 10-year bond closed at 2.47%. But we are not revising down our forecast for the yield […]
Actualizamos las estrategias de nuestros portafolios
Genevieve Signoret
Carta de la Presidente Estamos actualizando las estrategias de[1] nuestros portafolios modelo. Estamos cambiando el horizonte de inversión para nuestro portafolio modelo de corto plazo, La Carpeta Negra Short Term (LCN-ST), de 6-24 meses a 12-24 meses. Es la manera que tenemos de recomendar a los clientes que mantengan un año de requisitos de liquidez […]
We update our portfolio strategies
Genevieve Signoret
Letter from the President We’re updating our model portfolio[1] strategies. We’re changing the investment horizon for La Carpeta Negra Short Term (LCN-ST) to 12–24 months from 6–24 months. This is our way of recommending that clients keep one year of liquidity requirements in U.S. dollar cash. We define “cash” as anything FDIC protected (checking and […]
¿Cómo van nuestros portafolios modelo?
Genevieve Signoret
¿Cómo van nuestros portafolios modelo? Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable mercados desarrollados de Europa (6.6%), renta variable mercados emergentes (4.9%) y bonos convertibles EE UU (3.0%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron […]
How are our models portfolio doing?
Genevieve Signoret
Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were European developed market (6.6%), emerging market equity (4.9%), and US convertible bonds (3.0%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were US real estate (‒5.4%), ExUS DM sovereign bonds (‒2.9%), and US Treasuries […]
Will the OPEC game plan work?
Genevieve Signoret
Alternative Assets The 5 June 2015 OPEC meeting ended in a consensus decision to leave its output target at 30 mb/d and thus hold to its November 2014 decision to allow market forces to set prices. We see this as an effort by OPEC to force U.S. shale and other non-OPEC producers to lower output […]
See USTs trending down over next twelve months
Genevieve Signoret
Fixed Income Under our central scenario assumptions, in which Greece does not default or leave the euro area this year, we expect yields to move up for all maturities and the curve to flatten. We see U.S. Treasuries trending down now for the next 12 months. Of course, if Greece does default and exit, the […]
Our outlook for stock markets in 2H 2015
Genevieve Signoret
Equity In our central scenario, stock market volatility will now move sharply up and stocks will start trending down and continue to do so over the next few months. Soon after the Fed begins its normalization process (probably in September), however, stocks quickly rebound, by the end of this year recovering fully and perhaps even […]
We revise down the peso against the dollar
Genevieve Signoret
Currencies Under central-scenario assumptions, of which a key one is that Greece and its creditors reach an accord this summer, we expect emerging market currencies to fall against the U.S. dollar on trend now through the start of normalization (probably in September), then recover by year end and beyond. We summarize this expected path for […]
Una estrategia para un campo minado y una despedida pública
Genevieve Signoret
Carta de la Presidente Con la Fed preparándose para alzar las tasas en los siguientes seis meses, hemos llegado a aquella etapa en la que el mercado comienza a tornarse un campo minado: Los precios de los bonos del Tesoro de EE UU muestran ahora una seria tendencia a la baja, y prevemos que comenzará […]