We revised down the EUR/USD

Genevieve Signoret

Currencies In light of emerging foreign exchange trends, we have revised our outlook as follows: Yen has been oddly stable against the dollar, perhaps owing to generalized market caution (risk aversion generally favors the yen). We expect the yen to weaken to US$1.00=¥130 this quarter. The Swiss franc is up 3.86% against the dollar since […]

Watch the Fed

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views This week We expect the FOMC to drop the “patient” phrase in the communiqué. However, we don’t think this necessarily implies a rate hike in June. We think the Fed will probably start normalizing in the second half of the year but see a large risk that it will do so in June. […]

Renta variable de desarrollados del Pacífico y telecom de EE UU son categorías líderes

Genevieve Signoret

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable de desarrollados del Pacífico (7.0%), la renta variable de telecom EE UU (5.2%) y la renta variable de materiales EE UU (4.0%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) […]

Pacific developed market equity and U.S. telecom equity lead the pack

Genevieve Signoret

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were Pacific developed market equity (7.0%), U.S. telecomm equity (5.2%), and U.S. materials equity (4.4%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were U.S. mortgages (–1.9%), U.S inflation-protected bonds (–0.7%), and U.S. short-term munis […]

A quiet week ahead

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views Last week Politics Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, visited the U.S. congress to warn Americans on the dangers of reaching a deal with Iran over their nuclear program. Iran is competing with ISIS “for the crown of militant Islam”, he denounced. Mr. Netanyahu visited by invitation of Republicans; the visit was seen as […]

Renta variable de desarrollados del Pacífico y bienes raíces de EE UU son categorías líderes

Genevieve Signoret

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable de desarrollados del Pacífico (4.7%), los bienes raíces de EE UU (4.0%) y la renta variable de telecom EE UU (4.0%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron […]

Pacific developed market equity and U.S. real estate lead the pack

Genevieve Signoret

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were Pacific developed market equity (4.7%), U.S. real estate (4.0%), and U.S. telecomm equity (4.0%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were Mexico equity (–5.5%), U.S mortgages (–1.9%), and emergent market equity (–1.3%). […]

We hold to our forecast for the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond

Genevieve Signoret

Fixed Income We hold to our forecast for the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, which read as follows: We also hold to our central scenario outlook for Fed policy, which we spell out in our Timón Económico blog entry, We revise inflation numbers but not our monetary policy views on Fed or BoJ. Data […]

We revise down MXN

Genevieve Signoret

Currencies To incorporate incoming foreign exchange data, we have revised our outlook for the USD/MXN in quarters 1 and 2 of this year as follows: Data compendium

Key market mover this week: Friday U.S. jobs report

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views This week Markets this week will be fixated on Friday’s U.S. jobs report and its meaning for the March 17–18 FOMC decision. We expect neither the Bank of England nor the European Central Bank to revise its monetary policy stance on Thursday. For details on these and other market movers, please scroll down […]