Keep watching Greece

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views Coming up Market uncertainty is being fueled by Greek debt negotiations, the upcoming March FOMC meeting and congressional testimony and a press conference by Janet Yellen, the strange flatness of the U.S. yield curve in the face of Fed and professional forecaster projections for a June rate hike in June, and the direction […]

Bienes raíces de EE UU y renta variable alemana son categorías líderes nuevamente

Genevieve Signoret

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron los bienes raíces (9.0%), la renta variable alemana (6.0%) y la de capitalización mediana de EE UU (3.8%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron la renta variable de México (-13.4%), […]

U.S. real estate and Germany equity are winners again

Genevieve Signoret

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were U.S. real estate (9.0%), Germany equity (6.0%), and U.S. mid cap equity (3.8%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were Mexico equity (–13.4%), U.S. energy equity (–8.3%), and MLPs (–7.2%). Over the […]

We revise up our oil price outlook for 2015

Genevieve Signoret

Alternative Assets To reflect incoming data, we revise up our oil prices outlook for 2015, as follows: Quarterly forecast Annual forecast

What is driving sky-high demand for long-term U.S. Treasuries?

Genevieve Signoret

Fixed Income We’re puzzled as to what is driving such high demand (high prices, low yield) for long-term U.S. Treasuries. While for maturities shorter than 5 years, UST valuations have slipped in anticipation of a near-term Fed rate hike, for long-term bonds, valuations have sky-rocketed (the yield curve has become extremely flat). One possibility is […]

We revise our forex outlook

Genevieve Signoret

Currencies To incorporate incoming foreign exchange data, we have revised down our outlook for the peso and euro as follows: The Swiss franc is falling again against the dollar We forecast US$1.00=MXN1.12.00 for December 2015 We forecast €1.12=US$1.00 for December 2016 We forecast US$1.00=¥137 for December 2015

Watch Greece

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views This week’s main macro market risks China’s CPI inflation rate has fallen short of 2.0% since September 2014 and is expected to slowed down again in January. Analysts will be looking for signs that China faces the risk of falling into deflation. China’s central bank has been applying targeted stimulus to try to […]

Bienes raíces de EE UU y renta variable alemana son categorías líderes

Genevieve Signoret

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron los bienes raíces (12.5%), la renta variable alemana (7.9%) y la de baja volatilidad de EE UU (5.4%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron la renta variable de México (-12.1%), […]

U.S. real estate and Germany equity are winners

Genevieve Signoret

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were U.S. real estate (12.5%), Germany equity (7.9%), and U.S. low volatility equity (5.4%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were Mexico equity (–12.1%), U.S. energy equity (–7.6%), and developed market short-term bonds […]

Perspectiva 2015-2016: Bajas por largo tiempo

Genevieve Signoret

Nuestra Perspectiva Trimestral ya está disponible tanto en inglés como en español. Puede consultar nuestras tablas de pronósticos aquí y los supuestos de nuestros escenarios acá. El informe completo esta disponible aquí. Our Quarterly Outlook is now available in Spanish as well as English. You can consult full forecast tables here and scenario assumptions here. The […]