Estrategias de portafolio actualizadas
Genevieve Signoret
Carta de la Presidente Creamos un nuevo portafolio modelo de corto plazo[1] como medida de protección contra el alza de tasas de la Fed que esperamos el próximo verano, y ajustamos nuestros portafolios de mediano y de largo plazo para reflejar los cambios en nuestra perspectiva sobre la renta variable: nuestra perspectiva sobre las acciones […]
Revised portfolio strategies
Genevieve Signoret
Letter from the President We built a new short-term model portfolio[1] to brace for the Fed rate hikes we expect next summer and adjusted our medium-term and long-term portfolios to reflect changes in our equity outlook: our view on U.S. energy stocks has darkened—we no longer can come up with a basis for anticipating a […]
Watch Greece and U.S. jobs
Genevieve Signoret
Macro Views Next week Next week’s marketing moving highlights will be Greek debt talks and the U.S. jobs reports. For our full annotated events calendar, please scroll down. Activity USA GDP growth in Q4 was mainly driven by accelerating private consumption. USA GDP grew 2.6% q/q saar from 5.0% in Q3, slightly above our forecast […]
Major changes in our fixed income strategies
Genevieve Signoret
Fixed Income We continue to expect the first Fed rate hike in the third quarter of 2015 and see a risk that it will come sooner. Given our view on rates, we think the U.S. yield curve is unsustainably flat and will adjust abruptly (painfully) quite soon. We see its flatness as a flight to […]
Bull market has longer to run
Genevieve Signoret
Equity We think that the bull market has longer to run so are overweight equity relative to our neutral position of 0% for short-term (6–24-month) model[1] and client portfolios, 40% for medium-term (2–5-year) portfolios, and 60% for long-term (5+-year) ones. We have revised our strategies for the equity portions of all our portfolios. For details, […]
Peso can weaken further
Genevieve Signoret
Currencies We would not be surprised if the peso weakened further as markets prepare for Fed tightening, before starting to recover. Our foreign exchange forecasts for 2015–2016 are the following:
2015–2016 Outlook: Low for Long
Genevieve Signoret
We’ve updated our Quarterly Outlook for the global economy and asset markets, which now goes through the fourth quarter of 2016. You can consult full forecast tables here and scenario assumptions here. The full report is available here. A Spanish version of this report will be distributed later this week. Our central scenario is called Low for Long. In it, […]
Market will be hypersensitive to any change in FOMC tone
Genevieve Signoret
Macro Views Next week Next week’s main market-moving events are the Greek elections on Sunday and the U.S. FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Markets will be hypersensitive to even the slightest change in the Federal Open Market Committee’s tone or hint that the FOMC has begun to doubt that it will raise rates as early as […]
Bienes raíces de EE UU y renta variable de baja volatilidad son categorías líderes
Genevieve Signoret
Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron los bienes raíces (15.8%), la renta variable de baja volatilidad (10.3%), y la de capitalización mediana de EE UU (7.1%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron la renta variable de […]
U.S. real estate and low volatility equity are winners
Genevieve Signoret
Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were U.S. real estate (15.8%), U.S. low volatility equity (10.3%), and U.S. mid cap value equity (7.1%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were U.S. energy equity (–10.2%), Mexico equity (–8.3%), and developed […]