Where the peso’s going and what to do

Genevieve Signoret

Letter from the President The peso-dollar rate closed Friday 12 December at $1.00=MXN14.76. You’re probably wondering where might the exchange rate be going and how we’re handling the peso collapse in client accounts. We expect a near-term recovery. But you should not bet on that or any view in the derivatives markets unless you speculate […]

FOMC will keep guidance unchanged

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views Next week: the highlights Two events especially will command market attention this week: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision and Janet Yellen press conference. The market will be focused on whether the Fed will keep, remove, or modify its forward guidance, which today reads  as follows: The Committee anticipates, based […]

Los bienes raíces de EE UU y la RV de baja volatilidad son categorías líderes

Genevieve Signoret

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron los bienes raíces de EE UU (6.3%), la renta variable de baja volatilidad (10.5%), y los bonos del Tesoro de EE UU 7-10 años  (4.7%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) […]

U.S. real estate, low volatility equity and US Treasuries are winners

Genevieve Signoret

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were U.S. real estate (10.5%), U.S. low volatility equity (6.3%), and U.S. treasuries  (4.7%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were U.S. energy equity (–21.8%), Mexico equity (–20.4%), and EM equity (–11.3%). Over […]

Giro de 180 grados

Genevieve Signoret

Carta de la Presidente Si bien la semana pasada dijimos que conservaríamos nuestras posiciones largas en energía, para el portafolio modelo de corto plazo[1] ahora daremos un giro de 180 grados: las abandonaremos. Este portafolio tiene un fondo cotizado en bolsa (ETF) con una amplia canasta de contratos a futuro de materias primas. Este lunes […]

U Turn

Genevieve Signoret

Letter from the President Having said last week we would not bail out of our long positions in energy, for the short-term model portfolio[1] only, I’m doing a U turn: we’re bailing out. This portfolio holds ETF that holds a broad basket of commodities futures. We’re selling it on Monday and reassigning that small position […]

Watch China data and oil reports

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views The U.S. jobs report surprised on the upside. Yet we hold to our view that the Fed will not raise rates before the second half of 2015. Note that the unemployment rate did not come down: workers who had been idle are responding to jobs growth by rejoining the work force. Also, we’ve […]

La RV de baja volatilidad y los bienes raíces de EE UU son categorías líderes (nuevamente)

Genevieve Signoret

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable de baja volatilidad (7.6%), los bienes raíces (6.0%) y la renta variable del sector financiero EE UU (4.8%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron una amplia gama […]

U.S. low volatility, real estate, and financial services lead the pack (again)

Genevieve Signoret

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were U.S. low volatility equity (7.6%), real estate (6.0%), and U.S. financial services equity (4.8%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were broad commodities (–18.0%), U.S. energy equity (–16.2%), and Mexico equity (–14.4%). […]

Four comments on the meaning of falling oil prices

Genevieve Signoret

Alternative Assets China. Chinese credit flows continue to slow down. This is a good thing, not a bad thing; it can stave off an outright financial crisis in China. But it will probably also lead to a China slowdown more abrupt than the slowdown now foreseen by most analysts. This would add to downward pressure […]