Perspectiva 2014–2016: Bajas por largo tiempo

Genevieve Signoret

Hemos actualizado nuestra Perspectiva Trimestral para la economía global y las clases de activos, la cual ahora alcanza hasta el segundo trimestre de 2016. Puede consultar nuestras tablas de pronósticos completas aquí y las suposiciones de nuestro escenario central acá. El reporte completo está disponible aquí. Hemos denominado a nuestro escenario de pronóstico central para los siguientes ocho trimestres […]

2014–2016 Outlook: Low for long

Genevieve Signoret

We’ve updated our Quarterly Outlook for the global economy and asset markets, which now goes through the second quarter of 2016. You can consult full forecast tables here and scenario assumptions here. The full report is available here. A Spanish version of this report will be distributed later this week. We’ve dubbed our central forecast […]

¿Cuáles correlaciones?

Genevieve Signoret

Carta de la Presidente Al hablar de correlaciones entre títulos, debemos tener claro si nos referimos a tasas de retorno diario o a precios. Un intercambio de correos electrónicos que tuve esta semana con un lector llamado Víctor ilustra mi punto: Víctor: ¿Por qué TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) y las acciones de EE […]

Which correlations?

Genevieve Signoret

Letter from the President When talking about correlations across securities, we must be clear as to whether we’re referring to daily returns or prices. An e-mail exchange that I had this week with a reader named Victor illustrates my point: Victor: Why have TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) and U.S. stocks been exhibiting […]

The next three weeks

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views Because this blog is about to start its quarterly two-week pause, we leave you today with a calendar of not one but three weeks of potentially marketing-moving events. Events in red are those most likely to shake markets. Monday 22 Euro Area: European Central Bank Speech (ECB): Mario Draghi, the ECB governor, attends […]

Renta variable de México es la categoría líder

Genevieve Signoret

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable mexicana (+5.2%), las sociedades limitadas (MLP) de energéticos en EE UU (+4.6%), y la renta variable de mercados emergentes (+3.4%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron una […]

Mexico leads the pack

Genevieve Signoret

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were Mexico equity (+5.2%), US energy Master Limited Partnerships (+4.6%),  and financial services equity (+3.4%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were broad commodities (–11.6%), Germany equity (–7.4%), and US energy equity (–5.4%). […]

5 reasons not to participate in Alibaba’s IPO

Genevieve Signoret

Letter from the President I am not recommending to clients that they participate in Alibaba’s initial public offering, for five reasons: Our clients already have considerable exposure to China. We have taken substantial long positions for all our clients in commodities, an asset class especially sensitive to fluctuations in China’s economy.  For clients with investment […]

5 razones para no participar en la OPI de Alibaba

Genevieve Signoret

Carta de la Presidente No estoy recomendando a nuestros clientes participar en la OPI de Alibaba, por cinco razones: Nuestros clientes ya tienen mucha exposición a China. Para todos hemos tomado importantes posiciones en materias primas, las cuales son particularmente sensibles a los vaivenes de la economía china. Para los que tienen horizontes superiores a […]

We expect a Fed taper but no change in guidance

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views Besides the FOMC statement on Wednesday, the Fed will release the updated forecasts of Fed presidents. Also, Janet Yellen will hold a press conference. We expect the statement to announce a 10-billion-dollar asset-purchase-program taper to $15 bn/month. We’ll be especially alert to any changes in the wording of the Fed’s forward guidance. Today […]