RV de energéticos, de México y de mercados emergentes, son categorías líderes

Genevieve Signoret

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable de energéticos estadounidenses (+6.3%), la mexicana (+5.0%), y la  de mercados emergentes (+4.3%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron una amplia gama de materias primas (-9.0%), la […]

US energy, Mexico and EM equity are winners

Genevieve Signoret

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were US energy equity (+6.3%), Mexico equity (+5.0%),  and emerging market equity (+4.3%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were broad commodities (–9.0%), Germany equity (–7.1%), and European developed market equity (–4.9%). Over […]

We revise down our near-term forecast for global oil prices

Genevieve Signoret

Alternative Assets Given lower-than-expected current oil prices, we have revised down our oil price forecasts under central-scenario assumptions for the near term. Whereas we had forecast $111/barrel for Brent crude at the end of September 2014, we now project $98. We continue to think, however, that, over the next two years, the Brent price will […]

Revised forecast for yields on the 10y UST

Genevieve Signoret

Fixed Income Before moving on to our regular data compendium, we share our updated central-scenario forecast for yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. In light of  incoming data, we now expect the 10-year U.S. bond yield to end this quarter at around 2.5%. However, we continue to expect U.S. bond yields to soon start trending up […]

In revised forex outlook, we still see volatility

Genevieve Signoret

Currencies We have revised our central-scenario forecast for exchange rates. We now project the peso, euro, and yen to end this month weaker than under our previous forecast. We continue to anticipate a bout of sharp volatility marked by unpleasant positive correlations across asset classes excluding safe-haven cash. It is triggered by sudden market awareness […]

Watch U.S. and China data

Genevieve Signoret

Macro Views Next week in detail Events in red are those most likely to shake markets. During the week Mexico: Auto production and sales (Aug), wage settlements (Aug). India: Foreign trade (Aug). Saturday 6 USA: Fed speech: Plosser (FOMC voter). Charles Plosser, the hawkish president of the Philadelphia Fed, will give a speech on the economic […]

RV de mercados emergentes, de México y de energéticos son categorías líderes

Genevieve Signoret

Nuestro desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable de mercados emergentes (+8.4%), la mexicana (+8.2%), y la de energéticos estadounidenses (+5.9%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron la renta variable alemana (-7.7%), una amplia gama […]

EM, Mexico, and U.S. energy equity are winners

Genevieve Signoret

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were emerging market equity (+8.4%), Mexico equity (+8.2),  and U.S. energy equity (+5.9%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were Germany equity (–7.7%), broad commodities (–4.9%), and European developed market equity (–3.9%). Over […]

Perspectiva 2014-2016: Bajas por largo tiempo

Genevieve Signoret

Carta de la Presidente Hemos actualizado nuestra Perspectiva Trimestral para la economía global y las clases de activos, la cual ahora alcanza hasta el segundo trimestre de 2016. Puede consultar nuestras tablas de pronósticos completas aquí y las suposiciones de nuestro escenario central acá. En los próximos días publicaremos el reporte completo. Mientras tanto, le […]

2014–2016 Outlook: Low for long

Genevieve Signoret

Letter from the President We’ve updated our Quarterly Outlook for the global economy and asset markets, which now goes through the second quarter of 2016. You can consult full forecast tables here and scenario assumptions here. In coming days we’ll publish the full report. Meanwhile, we leave you with this summary. We’ve dubbed our central […]