Should you sell your business?
Genevieve Signoret
Letter from the President Yesterday I gave a talk in Mexico City at which someone raised his hand and said, “I have a buyer for my business. Should I sell out and invest the proceeds to invest in the market?” Obviously my speaker was not asking me for the right answer but for an approach to […]
Watch Jackson Hole, Fed minutes, Mexico GDP
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Macro Views Next week: the highlights Wednesday 20. USA: Monetary policy meeting minutes (Jul 29-30). On the Fed’s to-do list for the next 12 months are the following tasks: decide how exit from extraordinary stimulus, in what sequence to do it, how to signal to and teach markets about its exit strategy, and precisely what […]
Renta variable de emergentes, México y el Pacífico son otra vez categorías líderes
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable de mercados emergentes (+6.1%), la mexicana (+5.8%) y la de mercados desarrollados del Pacifico (+5.2%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron la renta variable alemana (-7.8%), la de mercados […]
EM, Mexico and Pacific equity again are winners
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were emerging market equity (+6.1%), Mexico equity (+5.9%), and Pacific developed market equity (+5.2%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were Germany equity (–7.8%), European developed market equity (–5.0%), and broad commodities (–4.8%). […]
Despite geopolitical tensions, commodity (including gold) prices are tame
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Alternative Assets Turmoil in the Ukraine and Iraq is not showing up in energy prices. This means that, if energy prices do embed a geopolitical risk premium, either investors don’t view supplies as endangered or actual supplies (versus mere supply risks) and weak demand are overpowering the risk premium. Gold prices are up a mere […]
A twisted U.S. yield curve
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Fixed Income Expected rate hikes have shifted up the short end of the U.S. yield curve, while risk aversion (flight to quality) has shifted down the long end. We do not think that the flattening in the U.S. yield curve is going to last. We see it as a transitory response to a wave of […]
Is the volatility episode over?
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Equity These 5-day moving averages of global stock market indices show that it’s premature to call the volatility episode over. European stock indices have fallen in local currency terms. Additionally, and exacerbating things for dollar-based investors, the euro is on a downward trend against the dollar. These 5-day moving averages of global stock market indices […]
USD/MXN could hit 13.30
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Currencies The recent volatility event may or may not be over. Should it continue and worsen, the peso could fall to $1.00=MXN 13.30. The euro is trending down against the dollar probably because of outlooks for monetary policy in both regions. Additionally, the recent risk off event may be weakening the euro further. These forex […]
Es un tipo de volatilidad benigna
Genevieve Signoret
Carta de la Presidente La volatilidad del mercado, al igual que el resfriado común, viene en más de una variante:la que te deja en el suelo y la que causa un mero catarro. Creemos que el tipo de volatilidad del mercado actual –conocida como aversión al riesgo (risk off)– es benigna. En las clases de […]
It’s the benign sort of volatility
Genevieve Signoret
Letter from the President Market volatility, like the common cold, comes in more than one strand: the kind that knocks you flat and the kind that brings on only sniffles. We see the type of market volatility we’re experiencing today—called risk off—as benign. Risk off episodes, within one group of asset classes called risk assets, […]