Watch Turkey elections, China and U.S. data
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Macro Views Next week: the highlights Sunday 10. Turkey: Presidential election (first round). Current prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is widely expected to win the presidency, perhaps already in this first round. Folks worry that he has been in power too long: he has been prime minister since 2003 and is planning to concentrate power […]
Renta variable de emergentes, del Pacífico y de México son categorías líderes
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Nuestro Desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable de mercados emergentes (+5.7%), la de mercados desarrollados del Pacifico (+5.2%) y la mexicana (+4.5%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron la renta variable alemana (-9.1%), la […]
Emerging market, Pacific, and Mexico equity outperform
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were emerging market equity (+5.7%), Pacific developed market equity (+5.2%), and Mexico equity (+4.5%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were Germany equity (–9.1%), European developed market equity (–6.3%), and broad commodities (–3.2%). […]
In fixed income, things can (and probably will) get worse
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Fixed income The U.S. yield curve is flattening again. The real pain will come when it steepens and stocks sell off at the same time. We won’t be found hiding in cash; we’ll ride it out. The current volatility has scarcely bruised U.S. high yield bond valuations. We’re braced for a far more damaging episode […]
Recovery from bout of risk aversion will send peso (but not euro) back up, yen back down
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Currencies The ongoing bout of risk aversion had driven down the peso to $1.00=MXN13.20 by the close of Monday 4 August (13.24 by Wednesday 7). We expect the peso to recover to $1.00=MXN13.00 by the end of 2014. Today’s EUR/USD weakness fulfills our long-held outlook. We see €1.00=$1.34 for December 2014 and $1.29 for December […]
Baja por Largo Tiempo, Préstamos a los Hijos
Genevieve Signoret
Carta de la Presidente Baja por Largo Tiempo Antes de pronunciarme sobre la asesoría patrimonial, quisiera hablarles de la Fed. Recuerden que no hay nada más importante para su patrimonio líquido que lo que hará la Fed en los próximos dos años. Ello es cierto incluso si su portafolio tiene exclusivamente títulos mexicanos. El comunicado […]
Low for Long, Loans to Kids
Genevieve Signoret
Letter from the President Low for Long Before I say a word about money management I need to talk about the Fed. Remember, nothing matters to your liquid wealth more than what the Fed will do in the next two years. This is true even if your entire portfolio holds Mexican securities exclusively. Yesterday’s FOMC […]
Watch Mexican lawmakers, U.S. jobs, ECB
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Macro Views Next week: the highlights During the week of 4 August. Mexico: Congress works on energy reform legislation. Both chambers have moved fast and all bills could be sent to President Peña Nieto in one or two weeks. So far, politicians are on track to validate our assumption that investor-friendly laws will be signed […]
Renta variable mexicana y de emergentes: ganadores otra vez
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Nuestro Desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable mexicana (+10.3%), la de mercados emergentes (+10.2%) y la de mercados desarrollados del Pacífico (+8.1%). Las de peor desempeño fueron una gama amplia de materias primas (-3.7%), la […]
Mexican and EM equity are again winners
Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret
Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were Mexico equity (+10.3%), emerging market equity (+10.2%), and Pacific developed market equity (+8.1%). Producing the lowest returns were broad commodities (–3.7%), German equity (–2.7%), and European developed market equity (+0.7%). So far this […]