Macro Views Next week, watch especially for the U.S. personal income and consumption, and savings report, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visit to Kiev, and Putin–Poroshenko talks in Minsk. Scroll down for a complete calendar of events apt to move markets next week. We summarize our reaction to Janet Yellen’s speech delivered today at Jackson Hole in […]

Nuestro Desempeño En los últimos tres meses, las clases de activos en nuestros portafolios modelo[1] de mayor rentabilidad en términos del dólar estadounidense fueron la renta variable mexicana (+7.3%), la de mercados emergentes (+6.4%) y bienes raíces estadounidenses (+6.3%). Las de peor desempeño (en dólares) fueron la renta variable alemana (-6.1%), una amplia gama de […]

Our Performance In the past three months, the asset classes in our model portfolios[1] that delivered the highest U.S. dollar returns were Mexico equity (+7.3%), emerging market equity (+6.4%), and US real estate (+6.3%). Producing the lowest returns (in dollar terms) were Germany equity (–6.1%), broad commodities (–5.5%), and European developed market equity (–3.2%). Over […]

Fixed Income We thought that the U.S. Treasury yield curve would steepen this year. It has done so on the short end but on the long end it has flattened. So the positions we took for clients in 7-10 Treasuries, designed to be a hedge to moderate portfolio losses during risk-off moments, has instead been […]

Currencies Probably thanks to central bank minutes published earlier in the week, the Great Britain pound sterling (GBP) and, even more so, the U.S. dollar (USD), continue to strengthen against the other world currencies. Monetary policy meeting minutes published this week by the last Bank of England (BoE) and the Fed monetary policy meetings show […]

Macro Views Next week: the highlights Wednesday 20. USA: Monetary policy meeting minutes (Jul 29-30). On the Fed’s to-do list for the next 12 months are the following tasks: decide how exit from extraordinary stimulus, in what sequence to do it, how to signal to and teach markets about its exit strategy, and precisely what […]

Fixed Income Expected rate hikes have shifted up the short end of the U.S. yield curve, while risk aversion (flight to quality) has shifted down the long end. We do not think that the flattening in the U.S. yield curve is going to last. We see it as a transitory response to a wave of […]

Macro Views Next week: the highlights Sunday 10. Turkey: Presidential election (first round). Current prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is widely expected to win the presidency, perhaps already in this first round. Folks worry that he has been in power too long: he has been prime minister since 2003 and is planning to concentrate power […]

Fixed income The U.S. yield curve is flattening again. The real pain will come when it steepens and stocks sell off at the same time. We won’t be found hiding in cash; we’ll ride it out. The current volatility has scarcely bruised U.S. high yield bond valuations. We’re braced for a far more damaging episode […]